Warren Buffett is so wealthy now because of his judgment. Even if you were to take away all of Warren’s money, tomorrow, investors would come out of the woodwork and hand him a $100 billion because they know his judgment is so good, and they would give him a big chunk of that $100 billion to invest.
Naval
First, you will try to get leverage. Once you have leverage, it means you're running the ship. You're the captain so you bear accountability and responsibility.
Ultimately, your sense of judgment will decide whether this ship will sink or not.
In an age of infinite leverage, judgment becomes the most important skill
Nobody cares what Warren does during the day. They hand him infinite leverage and trust him.
Judgment is very hard to build up, it comes from experience. It's understanding the long-term effects of your decisions and being able to make the right decision and capitalize on that.
Lots of so-called experts are making predictions from their intellectuality. But intellect without experience will only give you confidence without understanding the consequences. Skin in the game is the perfect book explaining the fallibility behind these so-called experts.
Emotions cloud our judgments. You have to be able to look past this to have the best judgment. Very often, great decision-takers, are the least emotional. Paradoxically you need to have a real passion in the thing you're doing. The ability to control your emotions is probably one of the decisive factors into having great judgment.
To try and connect some of these concepts, I would say that, first, you’re accountable for your judgment. Judgment is the exercise of wisdom. Wisdom comes from experience, and that experience can be accelerated through short iterations.
Nivi